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Bond yields extended their rally after the Bank of Japan kept yield curve control and softer US retail sales, producer prices and industrial production data came in. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3.40%, and markets focused on a 25bp Fed hike in February and possible Fed cuts later.
Expectations of a near-end to Fed tightening weaken the dollar and reduce financing costs, which can modestly support commodity prices and dollar-denominated export demand.
think.ing.comBenjamin Schroeder, Padhraic Garvey, CFAJan 19, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
