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The Conversation argues the proposed EU deforestation import ban may fail to protect rainforests and small farmers without changes. The regulation, expected in force in mid-2023, bars sales of products from land cleared after 2020 and requires proof of legal production.
The authors offer five recommendations including local benchmarking of risk by region.
Stricter country benchmarking could restrict supply from high-risk origins such as parts of Brazil and Indonesia, affecting soy, beef and palm oil flows. The effect depends on how the rules are finalized.
theconversation.comRachael Garrett, Janina Grabs, Joss Lyons-WhiteJan 6, 2023After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, PALMOIL moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 102 past neutral policy events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
