
A European Parliament research briefing outlines how EU fertiliser availability and affordability depend on natural gas for nitrogen production and on imported potassium and phosphorus. It notes that the 2021 energy price spike and the Russian invasion of Ukraine drove fertiliser prices higher.
The EU's reliance on gas-based nitrogen production links fertiliser costs to energy markets, which affects feed grain production costs and the price outlook for corn and wheat.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 13 past neutral policy events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -4.9% to +2.7%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.