
Showers and hailstorms have hit key Indian wheat states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Bihar after a heatwave eased. Traders fear yield and quality losses, and an S&P Global survey puts the harvest at 107-108 million tonnes, below the government's 112.2 million estimate.
Possible Indian crop shortfalls could tighten export availability and support wheat prices, though the export ban stays in place.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.