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Reuters reports that India's wheat planting was 8.6 million hectares as of November 17, down about 5.5% from a year earlier. Farmers in Madhya Pradesh are switching to less water-intensive crops because of dry soil.
A smaller planted area and the threat of hot early-2024 weather could cut India's wheat crop and keep its export ban in place, which supports world wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.