
USDA's April 11 WASDE raised its 2023 US milk production forecast by 200 million pounds to 228.2 billion pounds, based on a larger cow inventory. The projected 2023 Class III price was raised 70 cents to $18.25 per cwt, and the all-milk price was raised 20 cents to $20.65.
Higher USDA price projections for Class III signal firmer dairy prices, though larger output growth adds supply pressure. The report is a routine forecast update that moves the outlook only modestly.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.