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The USDA raised its 2026 US milk production forecast to 235.3 billion pounds, up 600 million pounds from the prior month. Class III and all-milk price projections were also raised on firmer cheese and nonfat dry milk prices.
A higher USDA price outlook and stronger dairy demand support dairy values, while larger milk output adds supply that partly offsets price gains for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.