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Indonesia tightened its palm oil export quota ratio to 1:4 from 1:6, cutting the amount exporters can ship relative to domestic sales. The trade ministry will also release about 3 million mt of frozen export permits gradually through January 2024, at roughly 336,000 mt per month.
Analysts estimate Indonesian supply could fall about 30% in the near term, which tightens global vegetable oil supply and supports palm and substitute oil prices. The phased release of held-back permits limits how far the squeeze will run.
ukragroconsult.comApr 28, 2023After 548 past bullish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's export quota ratio change and gradual release of about 3 million mt of frozen export permits raised expected export supply.
Indonesia's gradual release of frozen export permits and quota ratio change point to more palm oil supply reaching global markets, which is bearish for competing vegetable oils.
