PwC Indonesia summarised a Bisnis Indonesia report saying Indonesian palm oil prices are under pressure as export volumes rise and the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation, approved in May and effective December 2024, creates uncertainty. Fresh fruit bunch prices have fallen across most Indonesian regions, which farmers attribute partly to speculators pricing in EUDR compliance risk.
Deforestation compliance rules for EU-bound palm oil and soybeans may fragment export demand and push prices lower for non-certified supply. Rising Indonesian export volumes add to the bearish pressure on CPO.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.