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Arvalis said hot June weather will reduce yield potential for French cereals but the harvest should still be good on average. Durum wheat faces drought losses in the southeast, while winter barley shows good early yields.
Modest yield trimming in France, the EU's largest producer, adds some support to wheat prices but reassures that supply remains ample.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.