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A Pangea Risk monthly insight says the Black Sea grain deal was renewed for 60 days in May, running to mid-July. It also notes that Europe is considering an 11th sanctions package against Russia, with implications for African metals producers.
Renewal of the Black Sea grain deal has pushed wheat prices lower, which eases feed-grain costs. Any collapse in July could reverse this and lift wheat and corn prices.
fliphtml5.comACHAM Côte d'IvoireJun 5, 2023After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
