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Fastmarkets reviews palm oil price trends under climate change, noting NOAA declared the transition from La Niña to El Niño on June 8. It expects a moderate-to-strong El Niño to affect Southeast Asian rainfall, with the key risk period late autumn to early winter.
Malaysian output was weak early in 2023, with April the lowest since 2006.
El Niño-driven drought in Malaysia and Indonesia would cut palm oil yields and tighten supply into 2024. Markets are likely to price in this risk ahead of the critical late-year weather window.
fastmarkets.comJoao MorcianiJul 11, 2023After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
