
Oil prices rose on August 31 on tighter-than-expected U.S. crude supplies and a military coup in Gabon, an OPEC member. Analysts also expected Saudi Arabia to extend its 1 million bpd voluntary cut for a third month.
Focus shifted to China's factory data later that day.
Supply disruption fears from the Gabon coup and continued OPEC+ restraint support crude prices, which raise input costs for feed producers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.