Rayglen reports StatsCan confirmed higher chickpea acres for 2023 but a lower reported yield, possibly the lowest since 2014-15. Canadian oat production is put at 2.429 MMT, the lowest since 1991 and down 53.5% year on year, with feed oat bids at $4.00-$4.50/bu FOB farm.
A sharp drop in Canadian oat output tightens feed oat supply and supports prices, while chickpea uncertainty adds to market stability concerns. Feed buyers should expect firmer oat bids into the fall.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.