
Mecardo reports that ABARES forecasts Australian sorghum production to fall 39% in 2023-24 to about 1.5 million tonnes, driven by 21% less planted area and yields dropping from 3.65 to 2.85 t/ha. Dry winter conditions left dryland crops short of soil moisture, while irrigated crops benefit from stored water.
A sharp drop in Australian sorghum supply tightens feed grain availability in eastern Australia and can lift local feed prices. The forecast is near the 10-year average, so the tightening is relative to recent wet-year supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.