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An AFII analysis says the EU deforestation regulation poses material risk to investors in soy producers and traders. It finds that credit spreads do not yet reflect these risks, and it singles out Bunge as the most exposed large investment-grade issuer.
Financing costs for major soy traders could rise if the rules are enforced, which could eventually affect trader margins and the spread at which soy is handled.
anthropocenefii.orgStephanie Mielnik, Thomas WhiteSep 12, 2023After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 734 past policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 1,570 past policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
