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Brazil's Environment Ministry estimates the EU anti-deforestation law could affect about 20% of soy and beef produced in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado. The commodities covered represent 34% of Brazil's trade with the EU, nearly $17.5 billion.
Producers unable to demonstrate legality face the largest effect.
If a fifth of Amazon and Cerrado soy and beef is excluded or costlier to certify, EU-bound supply could tighten and reroute. This is a meaningful but still gradual factor for soy and meal pricing.
valorinternational.globo.comRafael WalendorffNov 10, 2023After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 17 past bullish policy events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
