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S&P Global assesses that the EU deforestation regulation will likely reconfigure trade and supply chains for deforestation-linked commodities over the next decade. Impacts are expected in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina, and cocoa origins such as Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana.
Most producing countries are expected to focus on enforcing existing rules rather than enacting new legislation within a year.
Higher compliance costs and tracing requirements could shift EU-bound palm oil, soy and beef trade toward low-risk origins. The outlook is long-term, so near-term price effects are limited.
spglobal.comS&P GlobalSep 1, 2023After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
