
ABARES forecasts Australian winter crop output falling by a third, with wheat revised down 36% to 25.4 million tonnes. Horticulture and sugar output are expected to rise and help keep total agricultural value near record levels.
The lower wheat and winter grain outlook supports feed grain prices, while the horticulture gains do not offset the grain supply shortfall for feed buyers.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.