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ABARES forecasts Australian agricultural production value to fall 5% to $98.3 billion in 2026-27 after a record 2025-26 year, with export value down $7 billion to $74.8 billion. The drop reflects lower crop volumes and livestock prices from drier seasonal expectations, while high fuel and fertiliser costs add pressure.
A smaller Australian export supply of grains and livestock products would support global prices for wheat and barley and tighten competing exporters' market share. The effect is most relevant to feed grain buyers facing a thinner Australian supply.
agriculture.gov.auJun 2, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
