
USDA's September Crop Production and WASDE reports put the national average corn yield at 173.8 bpa, half a bushel above the pre-report average, while acreage increases lifted production to 15.13 billion bushels. Soybean yield was forecast at 50.1 bpa, down 0.8 bpa from August and in line with expectations.
Higher acreage offset lower yields, leaving US corn ending stocks bearish versus expectations, while soybean tightening is supportive. Corn futures are likely to face pressure from the larger supply estimate.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.