Mediterranean cereal output was mixed in 2023, with drought cutting wheat production sharply in Morocco (-23%), Algeria (-22%) and Tunisia (-42%) versus the five-year average. Italy, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia faced excess humidity and storm damage, and several heatwaves hit the region.
Lower North African wheat output raises import needs in a region heavily dependent on world markets, supporting global wheat demand and prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.