
Rabobank forecasts Australia's 2017/18 winter grain crop at 35 million tonnes, down 41% from last year's record 59 million. A dry winter in Western Australia and severe east coast frosts are behind the shortfall, leaving output about eight million tonnes below the five-year average.
A crop roughly 40% smaller than last season reduces Australian export supply for the Northern Hemisphere's off-season, supporting wheat and barley prices and feed grain costs for buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.