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Santander economists expect the Brazilian real to remain relatively stable, as the real interest rate differential with the US of about 5 percentage points provides a cushion. Brazil's policy rate is expected to stay restrictive through 2024 while US rates are expected to fall.
The analysis suggests the narrowing nominal spread is unlikely to trigger a sharp real depreciation.
A stable real keeps Brazilian soybean and corn export prices steady in dollar terms, limiting farm selling pressure and the risk of a sudden cost jump for imported feed inputs. It is a forecast of currency stability rather than a new event.
valorinternational.globo.comVictor Rezende, Gabriel RocaDec 11, 2023After 92 past neutral macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
