
MarketsFarm reports that ABARES puts Australia's winter crop at 46.1Mt, up from 45.2Mt in September but 33% below last year's record. Harvest is progressing earlier and faster than usual, though late November rain has delayed operations in the east.
The smaller crop supports export prices, but early harvest and the upward revision limit the upside. Rain-damaged unharvested grain could reduce quality.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.