The Australian Crop Report for September 2026 forecasts national winter crop production to fall 12% in 2026-27 to 61 million tonnes. Summer crop production is forecast to fall 25% to 3.4 million tonnes.
A smaller Australian winter crop than last year tightens export supply for wheat and barley buyers, but the forecast is still well above the 10-year average, which limits the upside for prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.