The USDA Grain Transportation Report for the week ending December 14, 2023 showed unshipped wheat, corn and soybean balances for 2023/24 of 38.54 mmt, up 13% year on year. Net export sales were mixed week to week, and rail originations rose 13% from the prior week.
Rail car bids were lower than a year earlier and barge shipping faced earlier low-water constraints.
Large unshipped balances and slower export sales point to ample supply in the US export pipeline, which tends to weigh on US grain prices. Logistics costs for rail and barge set the farmgate basis.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.