Gold, Crude Oil: Fed rebuttal of rate cut bets may accelerate downside momentum

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 25, 2022Oil Price: Crude Down on China COVID Lockdowns and Fed Rate Outlook - Markets Insider+1.2%
• Oct 28, 2022Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets+1.2%
• Jun 7, 2024Dollar Rallies and Gold Sinks as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Recede+1.4%
• May 1, 2019Dollar rises as Fed's Powell cools bets on rate-cut+0.2%
• Aug 1, 2019Gold prices slip to two-week low as US Fed dashes hopes of more rate cuts+1.1%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 25, 2022Oil Price: Crude Down on China COVID Lockdowns and Fed Rate Outlook - Markets Insider+2.0%
• Sep 18, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent lower as Fed cuts rates+0.3%
• May 5, 2025Barclays cuts 2025, 2026 Brent crude forecast as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes+4.6%
• Aug 5, 2024Dollar down as US rate cut bets rise, yen surges+4.4%
• Mar 7, 2023Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider-7.1%