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Weaker-than-expected US jobs data, weak technology earnings and concerns over China's economy triggered a global sell-off in stocks, oil and high-yielding currencies. The dollar fell as traders increased bets on US rate cuts, and the yen surged.
Rate-cut bets that weaken the dollar generally support dollar-priced commodities such as grains and oilseeds. The sell-off in oil also lowers energy costs that feed into biofuel and freight economics.
reuters.comHannah LangAug 5, 2024After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
