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The dollar eased from a two-decade high on July 18 as traders pared bets on a larger Fed rate hike. Futures markets moved firmly toward a 75 bp increase at the July meeting after a softer inflation expectations reading.
Reduced expectations for aggressive Fed hikes weaken the dollar, which modestly supports dollar-priced commodities.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.