
Citi's head of global markets for Brazil, Eduardo Miszputen, said foreign capital inflows are unlikely to push the real much stronger in 2024. He expects external factors such as US interest rates, two ongoing wars and the US election to drive volatility, while commodity prices and the trade balance give less support than in 2023.
A weaker-than-last-year commodity and trade balance support for the real keeps Brazil's currency relatively cheap, which favors Brazilian export volumes of soy and corn into world markets.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.