◂ Event Timeline

May 9, 2024MACROBrazil

Slower easing cycle may not provide relief for the real

Capital Economics expects the Brazilian real to stay under pressure against the dollar over coming quarters even as Brazil's monetary easing cycle slows. The note is an FX market update aimed at Latin America clients.

WHY IT MATTERS

A persistently weaker real favors Brazilian agricultural exports on price, which can cap US export demand and pressure global soymeal and corn prices.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
capitaleconomics.comJonathan PetersenMay 9, 2024

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.8%5d +1.3%20d +3.8%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Feb 23, 2021USD/BRL: Brazilian real set to depreciate modestly versus the dollar over the next year – Capital Economics — Octa+1.7%
Jul 15, 2024Brazil: the real economy and markets - the quest for synchronicity+1.9%
Jun 21, 2022Further Weakening Of Brazilian Real!? FX Forecasts: USD To BRL, USD To MXN & USD/CLP | ING Economics | FXMAG.COM+1.3%
Jan 30, 2024Foreign capital inflows unlikely to make real much stronger, Citi says+1.2%
Mar 19, 2020Why the U.S. dollar’s relentless rally is causing pain for emerging markets - MarketWatch-1.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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