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Natural gas futures gave back most of the previous week's gains on Jan. 16 as warmer forecasts for later in January reduced expected heating demand.
The February Nymex contract was down 10% at $2.982 per mmBtu, after freezing weather had earlier lifted prices.
Shifting weather outlooks drive heating-fuel demand and gas prices, which feed through to energy and nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed producers.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.