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McKinsey analyzes how restrictions on daily transits through the Panama Canal, caused by severe drought lowering Gatun Lake, could reroute millions of tons of cargo. The Panama Canal carries about 2.5% of global seaborne trade, with more than 14,000 transits in 2023.
Transit caps force cargo onto longer routes or other ports, raising freight costs and delaying US grain and oilseed shipments to Asia, which can widen regional price spreads for feed ingredients.
mckinsey.comDavid Dierker, Nicolas Lopez, John Murnane, Steve Saxon, Jaime SzigethiJan 19, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
