
BIMCO estimates Panama Canal ship capacity between September 2024 and January 2025 was 10% below the 2019-22 average, measured in deadweight tonnes. Dry bulk, LNG and some tanker transits have not recovered even though restrictions ended.
A shift in U.S. grain exports to West Coast ports, which are up 21% year-on-year to Pacific destinations, is cited as a factor.
Vessels rerouting around the Cape add tonne-miles and support freight rates for dry bulk. Continued shift of U.S. grain away from the canal changes regional export flows and can affect Gulf versus Pacific basis.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.