
A USDA global meat report released on February 12 revised Chinese pork estimates, cutting the 2023 herd through accelerated slaughter and lowering imports. China's 2023 pork production was put at 56.9 million tonnes, above the earlier 56.5 million estimate, and 2024 output, herd and slaughter are forecast to fall.
Lower Chinese pork imports and a shrinking 2024 herd reduce import demand for meat and feed, while the large existing supply keeps domestic hog prices under pressure until supply tightens in the second half.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.