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A farmdoc daily analysis reviews USDA's February data releases, including the 2022 Census of Agriculture, which showed the lowest number of farmers since 1850 and continued farmland loss. It also covers updated CBO baseline projections and recent farm income statistics.
The author says the 2024 farm bill debate has not yet started.
Farm income and structural declines shape the policy environment for the farm bill, but they do not directly move near-term feed commodity prices. The analysis mainly informs longer-run expectations for supply and program support.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoFeb 15, 2024After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
