
The Congressional Budget Office's February 2024 baseline projects USDA mandatory farm program and SNAP outlays at $1.46 trillion for fiscal 2025 to 2034. That is about $59 billion, or 3.9%, below the May 2023 baseline.
SNAP accounts for nearly 80% of the projected spending.
Lower projected farm program spending points to tighter room for commodity and crop insurance support in the next farm bill. It has little direct effect on feed grain or protein prices.
After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.