
Newly imposed US import tariffs of at least 10pc on non-North American phosphate are deterring vessels from Nola and lifting MAP prices. The Nola MAP price averaged a $5.75/st premium to DAP for April so far, after trading at a discount in March.
Market participants expect the MAP premium to widen as fall application season approaches.
Tariffs cut import supply into the US and restore a MAP premium, which tightens the phosphate market and raises costs for growers. Price strength may persist through fall application season.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.