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Southbound barge rates on US rivers have fallen to unsustainable levels as demand weakened earlier than usual, with April tariffs around 284% versus the usual 300% floor. Carriers including American Commercial Barge Line say the rates are below breakeven for many operators.
The USDA reports that 84% of forecast US corn exports and 89% of soybean exports are already sold, and US prices have eased to compete with Brazil and Argentina.
Lower barge freight rates reduce the cost of moving US grain down the Mississippi, but weak southbound demand signals slower export pace and softer demand for US corn and soybeans until harvest-season exports pick up.
argusmedia.comMeghan Yoyotte, Eduardo GonzalezMar 25, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
