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A farmdoc daily analysis examines how drought lowered Mississippi River levels to a decade low in October 2022, slowing barge traffic carrying grain and fertilizer. It finds that soybean price dislocations varied with distance from export terminals and crush plants.
Low river levels raised barge freight costs and widened basis gaps for soybeans far from export and crush demand, pressuring local cash prices. Similar river constraints would again raise logistics costs for Midwest grain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduLee BynumApr 3, 2023After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
