
Australia shipped 2.7 Mt of wheat in January, the most since May 2023, with about 1 Mt going to China. Local wheat futures nonetheless fell to their lowest for the nearby month since July 2021 as export competition weighed.
ABARES also raised its sorghum estimate to 2.0 Mt.
Strong export volumes did not stop Australian wheat prices from falling, signalling heavy global competition. Higher sorghum output adds to supply and pressures sorghum prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.