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Analysts at the Australian Grains Industry Conference said Australia's wheat price outlook is bearish, with growers heading into harvest without the China forward sales seen last year. China's wheat imports have fallen from about 15 million tonnes to 5-9 million as cheap corn displaces wheat in feed rations.
Lack of Chinese forward buying and displacement of wheat by corn in China point to weaker export demand and lower harvest-time prices for Australian wheat.
ukragroconsult.comAug 5, 2024After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
