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Rain has improved prospects for Australia's 2024/25 wheat crop, which analysts see near 30 million tonnes. Chinese demand may fall sharply after record imports in recent years, and wheat prices are already at their lowest since 2020.
Weak Chinese import demand combined with a larger Australian crop points to continued pressure on wheat export prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.