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Reuters reports that rain has improved Australia's 2024/25 wheat outlook, with StoneX forecasting about 30 million tonnes. Analysts say weak Chinese demand could sharply cut Australian exports, with no replacement market available.
Expected weak Chinese imports and a larger Australian crop point to downward pressure on wheat export prices at harvest.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.