
Indonesia is in talks with India, Brazil, Thailand and the Philippines about exporting urea. It estimates an exportable surplus of about 1.5 million tonnes from 14.5 million tonnes of capacity, provided domestic needs are met first.
The talks follow Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have raised fertilizer prices.
A possible new Indonesian urea supply would add to global nitrogen availability and could ease prices, though the volume is modest and no deals are confirmed.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.