COCERAL expects EU wheat production to decline this year while oat area is forecast to increase in several countries, including the Baltics and Poland. The EU produced 7.4 million tonnes of oats last year, and food-oriented oat demand is growing.
A forecast wheat decline paired with rising oat plantings could make oats more competitively priced versus wheat, shifting feed grain substitution in Europe.
After 35 past neutral report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.