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Urea prices collapsed after India bought only 340 kt in its latest tender, well below the awards of more than 700 kt previously. NOLA and Middle East offers fell sharply, and buyers in Brazil, Europe and Egypt stayed on the sidelines.
A sharp drop in India's tender volume removes a key source of global urea demand, pushing down FOB and CFR prices. Weak demand and arriving US supply suggest further downside pressure.
After 81 past bearish trade events, UREA moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.