Recovering euro keeps dollar 'gorilla' from scuppering ECB rate outlook

After 388 past bullish macro events, EURUSD moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2024Euro-Dollar: Inflation, GDP Data Prompts Hawkish Rethink of ECB Rate Outlook+0.6%
• Aug 26, 2026Euro: ECB tightening outlook offers support against US Dollar - BNY-0.7%
• Dec 14, 2017Dollar nurses losses after Fed keeps outlook unchanged; ECB eyed | Gold Eagle+1.0%
• Dec 14, 2023Euro-Dollar Closing On 1.10 As ECB Resists Rate Cut Bets+1.5%
• Oct 29, 2021Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Jumps On ECB Rate Decision And US GDP-1.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2024Euro-Dollar: Inflation, GDP Data Prompts Hawkish Rethink of ECB Rate Outlook-0.5%
• Aug 26, 2026Euro: ECB tightening outlook offers support against US Dollar - BNY+0.4%
• Dec 14, 2017Dollar nurses losses after Fed keeps outlook unchanged; ECB eyed | Gold Eagle-0.4%
• Dec 14, 2023Euro-Dollar Closing On 1.10 As ECB Resists Rate Cut Bets-1.3%
• Dec 13, 2017Gold jumps 1% as dollar slips on Fed rate outlook - The Business Times-0.4%