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AHDB spring supply estimates show well-above-average end-of-season wheat and barley stocks in the UK, with oat ending stocks the smallest since 2011/12. Crop condition reports show poor winter sowings after a very wet autumn and winter, with French soft wheat rated at its poorest since 2020.
Smaller UK oat supplies and poor European crop conditions support feed grain prices, while large UK wheat and barley stocks limit upside for those grains.
fas.scotMay 9, 2024After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
